Mon, 27 Jun 2022

CHICAGO, May 21 (Xinhua) -- CBOT agricultural futures were mixed in the past week, as world equity markets fell sharply with U.S. stock indexes lower for the 7th consecutive week, the longest losing streak since 2008, Chicago-based research company AgResource noted.

Due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict, the world wheat and corn supplies will get increasingly tight in the weeks and months ahead. AgResource stays bullish, saying grains will be the bull leader and a seasonal grain top could form in July/August.

CBOT corn futures ended flat for the week, as the market was caught between a plunging world wheat market and firming cash prices in the United States and South America. The potential for extreme supply tightness in the United States will provide a pillar of support to the market indefinitely, and the need for near-perfect weather in Central U.S. this summer is real.

In the near term, sustained rallies above 8.20-8.40 U.S. dollars for July contract require new weather threats. Whether next week's soaking rainfall in the Midwest will prove welcomed or threatening will hinge on seeding progress as of Sunday. AgResource remains concerned about recent U.S. weather extremes and the increasing likelihood that abnormal warmth will be in place across the whole country during the summer. Elevated precipitation is needed no later than June across the Plains.

The long-term outlook remains bullish. Record low exporter stocks are unavoidable in 2022-2023. South American surpluses will be exhausted earlier than normal amid production loss. AgResource holds that new all-time highs will occur this summer on even minor U.S. weather threats.

Wheat futures worldwide found newer contract highs following India's ban of future exports, but ended steady to weaker. A correction from overbought territory was needed, and by late week there was uncertainty over whether India will allow the shipment of some two million metric tons of old crop wheat.

The break was compounded by next week's wet forecast across the eastern half of the hard red winter (HRW) Belt. The price action this week shows how sensitive wheat markets will be to even minor changes in perception of supply and demand.

Wheat's bullish price channel will be maintained and AgResource maintains a strategy of using current prices to extend end user supply coverage into early autumn. Crop health will worsen into early June across the far Western Plains and drought is building rapidly in key portions of Europe. Confirmed yield loss in Europe raises the burden on price to destroy demand. Weekly moves of 30-60 cents will be common moving forward. A sustained price range of 13.00-14.00 dollars is still projected beyond harvest.

Soybean futures marked a week of gains and a weekly close above 17 dollars per bushel. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a bullish April soybean crush rate that was 9.5 million bushels larger than last year and the second largest on record. AgResource estimates April U.S. soybean disappearance at a record large 305 million bushels, a 38-percent increase over last year. U.S. soybean stocks are now in fast retreat with record large outstanding export sales to drive the export pace and historic 3-dollar-per-bushel crush margins to drive domestic processing rates.

Soybean planting progress was just at 30 percent. Warm and dry weather across the Midwest aided progress this week. AgResource expects that 48-53 percent of the U.S. soybean crop will have been planted by Sunday.

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